India’s Millennials
The question shouldn’t be what’s happening to India’s millennials today, but what will become of them years hence? The rural-urban divide is jarringly stark. But scarier still, when their problems merge. What are the “Urban jobs”? They are truly of the “frying pakoras” variety. Visit any city, look around you — these jobs are really non-jobs. Amazon-Flipkart couriers, Swiggy delivery jobs and perhaps marginally better, Uber or Ola drivers.
Now, imagine their lives 10 years on. The number of people joining the workforce will continue to increase till then. Supply will far outstrip demand. These jobs, are NOT aspirational jobs. These jobs, don’t enhance your marriageability. Financial stability increases marriageability. Swiggy ain’t going to cut it for you.
China did it? Not exactly. China’s problem today is not enough consumers. India’s problem will be no ability to consume. China’s problem, also self-inflicted, with the One-Child policy. The demographic dividend that Modi harped on pre-2014 has been lost! Unfortunately for us, by the time it was our turn, manufacturing has gotten highly automated. Design — highly automated. Datacenter jobs — vanished in the cloud. Telecom — reaching saturation, besides, debt burdened and looking to cut costs.
So, what happens next?
Future Governments will be unable to create jobs. This; next; or any future Government. Yes, Modi too. Sorry, he has no magic wand. This should, already be apparent. Any jobs growth India has ever had, has come, not because of Government, but despite it. Our IT Services jobs boom included.
Yes, yes, innovation will create new technology and new opportunities. But India’s faltering education system will ensure our job-seekers inadequately skilled.
The rural-urban divide will merge. A crisis will emerge. Then, religion or some form of groupism, is just not enough. The hunger becomes real. We will have our Yellow Vests, but only worse. Far, far, worse. Unlike the Europeans, the Rupee is not a reserve currency. We only have our consumers, and when they are gone, so goes our economy.
When this happens, institutional destruction will get real. Destruction will get literal. Riots, common place. What? we are culturally not inclined to violence, and this has never happened? You mean, were. We ARE now. Lynching, stone-throwing, cop-killing mobs are all early manifestations.
Even your friendly Swiggy delivery boys, don’t seem so friendly these days. Most of them are college graduates. Educated, yet, hold non-jobs, are unmarried (not out of choice), and getting frustrated, FAST. Like their counterpart millennials elsewhere in the world, but with a definitive ZERO in terms of financial self-maintenance capability. There is no social fallback mechanism either. At least not a functional one.
Uber drivers have already started protesting. They’ve been milder in their protests so far. In a couple of years, be ready for the Swiggy uprising. Followed by the Amazon-Flipkart couriers. These disparate groups will merge, and then joined by a fresh crop of college graduates along with their rural brethren. Graduates that don’t even have those Swiggy jobs. The monthly cost of a motor vehicle, will outstrip its Ola revenue potential. It’s already happening.
Existing large employers — not growing anymore. Banks — struggling. Government — can barely make fiscal targets, scarcely servicing its gargantuan payroll. Railways and Highways — possibly, but mostly require temporary manual labourers. No college graduate wants these jobs. Agriculture — mechanized globally, and consequently failing in India without price support. Lack of tillable land availability ensures no mechanization here.
Difficult to picture this unpicturable?
Turn your attention to Nigeria. Watch them carefully, because our economy will take a similar path. They have oil, we have consumers. And now, they’re struggling to keep that. Just as we will, with our consumers consuming. Even working on a farm is not an option in Nigeria. Expect Boko Haram style groups. Just need our lynching mobs to get more organized. Ten years of idle time should be plenty.
But that’s still ten years away. That’s two terms of humilitainment. That, sadly will be all that’s left. Chaos, followed by humilitainment, followed by more chaos.
Is it all that bad? Not necessarily. With severe crises, sometimes comes meaningful Governmental action. It is one of the few times that, the ruling class is stirred into action. Remember the PV Narsimha Govt financial crisis? Indians sold their gold! Unthinkable right? Not once, but twice! Faced with a crisis, the Rao, minority (yes, minority) Government acted decisively.
If they do act, let’s hope it’s sooner rather than later. Future Governments need to realize that wherever the next job opportunities lie, they are always preceded by large foreign investment.
Two things that others have done, that we should NOW …
Foreign Direct Investment
Allow money to flow in. Don’t be bothered too much by where it’s coming from. If at all, control outflows. But don’t impede the flow in. This crisis is such, that we can’t let politics govern what investments to accept and what not to. Money will find its way to opportunities that provide the best returns. And, that sometimes means, returns, not reduced by onerous taxes. This will be a difficult pill to swallow; when Government coffers run dry, these are the easiest tax targets. Think the current “Angel-tax”.
If we want to win, we can’t deck all the rules in only our favour. If you want to attract money, you make yourself more attractive to it, not less. All successful economies have done this. The desperate ones, have even become tax havens. Our “large consumer base” is of no use if, they don’t have the money to consume. An aggressive tax policy has meant, our attractiveness is fast dwindling.
Innovation
Secondly, If you want local innovation to thrive, then you need to protect it. India’s Patent and Trademark regime needs serious overhaul. India received a total of 46,582 patent applications last year, of them 14,961 were from Indian individuals or entities and 31,621 were from foreigners, and of them 9,222 came from the US.
Isn’t it unusual, that more foreigners apply for Indian patents, than Indians? Why do you think that is? It’s just not worth your while.
You’d be lucky, if you are to be awarded a patent within 10 years after filing. Change in technology or adoption does not wait till then. Also, a patent is worth nothing, if you can’t enforce it. Indians know how efficient their judicial systems are. Another 15–20 years at least, if you get any justice. That means, typically 20 years before you see a single paisa in compensation for your efforts. Your business, if it relied on patent protection, is dead and gone long before that. It is not the cost of filing a patent, something successive Governments are so bent on reducing. It never was.
Another aspect that needs attention — appetite for innovation. Startup India is great, if there are buyers for my product. In a country, where one of the biggest organized buyers is the Government, you cannot have laws that ban purchase of “proprietary technology”. The CVC guidelines need to change. Especially for Startups.
Yes, yes, this will open ourselves to corruption. But, when you are staring at such a crisis, the small price is worth it. Besides, technologies that are destined to fail, will eventually fail.
A crisis is a good time to make bold moves. The last crisis saw the dismantling of the License Raj. Will we make good use of the impending one?
